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Facts Interpretations

Modeling Covid-19 U.K. fatalities

Abstract Two models of the Covid-19 U.K. epidemics were calibrated respectively on offical death data and on an estimate of total excess death for 2020. We demonstrate the U.K. was in an unfavorable initial position with R0 around 3, higher than most countries. The effect of social distancing and decision of lockdown was positive, saving […]

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Interpretations

Is Iceland clear of Sars-CoV-2 ?

Abstract In this study, we propose a model of the Covid-19 epidemics in Iceland calibrated on official “Confirmed Cases” and official death record curves (as of May 3, 2020 there were 1799 cases and 10 deaths). The aim is here to make the prior assumption that these data are correct and observe some of the […]

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Interpretations

Recent seroprevalence survey in New York City points to 35.6% infected and a 0.9% IFR

Abstract News came a few hours ago of a serology survey in New York City this week. We matched our model on reported data and found an ultimate Infection Fatality Rate of 0.9% for New York City, significantly higher than the 0.21% assumed in our previous model on 15 April – which was derived from […]

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Interpretations

Proposed model and estimated preliminary value for SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion time

Abstract Seroconversion is defined as the period necessary for antibodies to be detectable in the blood in reaction to a viral infection. Good estimate of serocoversion time from an infection by SARS-CoV-2 is of critical importance for epidemic modelling and for interpreting correctly various serology surveys now underway in various countries. From published evidence and […]

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Facts Interpretations

Sars-CoV-2 preliminary serology test reports from Scotland, Denmark and Finland provide contrasting estimates of Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR)

Abstract Randomised Sars-Cov-2 serology surveys were recently conducted in Scotland, Denmark and Finland. Preliminary results were made public. We propose a workflow to interpret results in terms of epidemic dynamics. The Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) in Denmark is estimated 0.21%. IFR seven times lower are estimated for Finland and Scotland, with low degree of confidence, […]

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Facts Interpretations

New York City epidemic: quantifying lockdown effect from simulation… plus some insight on the proportion of infected

A CovModel 1.5 simulation of the Covid-19 epidemic in New York City was run to simulate death incidence up to 13 April 2020. The initial reproduction number was found Ro=3.2. We easily explained a peak in daily death of 670 occuring last Friday 10 April assuming a sharp reduction in R factor happening on 24 […]

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Interpretations

How our project started (Twitter archive)

Laurent Schirrer’s original tweet transcript 26 March 2020, 22:19 Two ways one can contribute to fight #covid19 : 1/ #stayathome ! 2/Offer your pro competences. My bckgrnd is physics modelling, so I naturally became interested in #epidemy models in past few weeks. Here below my first modest contribution: notes on a recent @UniofOxford paper… The […]