CovModel
Abstract Two models of the Covid-19 U.K. epidemics were calibrated respectively on offical death data and on an estimate of total excess death for 2020. We demonstrate the U.K. was in an unfavorable initial position with R0 around 3, higher than most countries. The effect of social distancing and decision of lockdown was positive, saving […]
Abstract In this study, we propose a model of the Covid-19 epidemics in Iceland calibrated on official “Confirmed Cases” and official death record curves (as of May 3, 2020 there were 1799 cases and 10 deaths). The aim is here to make the prior assumption that these data are correct and observe some of the […]
Abstract News came a few hours ago of a serology survey in New York City this week. We matched our model on reported data and found an ultimate Infection Fatality Rate of 0.9% for New York City, significantly higher than the 0.21% assumed in our previous model on 15 April – which was derived from […]
Abstract Seroconversion is defined as the period necessary for antibodies to be detectable in the blood in reaction to a viral infection. Good estimate of serocoversion time from an infection by SARS-CoV-2 is of critical importance for epidemic modelling and for interpreting correctly various serology surveys now underway in various countries. From published evidence and […]
Abstract Randomised Sars-Cov-2 serology surveys were recently conducted in Scotland, Denmark and Finland. Preliminary results were made public. We propose a workflow to interpret results in terms of epidemic dynamics. The Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) in Denmark is estimated 0.21%. IFR seven times lower are estimated for Finland and Scotland, with low degree of confidence, […]
A CovModel 1.5 simulation of the Covid-19 epidemic in New York City was run to simulate death incidence up to 13 April 2020. The initial reproduction number was found Ro=3.2. We easily explained a peak in daily death of 670 occuring last Friday 10 April assuming a sharp reduction in R factor happening on 24 […]
Laurent Schirrer’s original tweet transcript 26 March 2020, 22:19 Two ways one can contribute to fight #covid19 : 1/ #stayathome ! 2/Offer your pro competences. My bckgrnd is physics modelling, so I naturally became interested in #epidemy models in past few weeks. Here below my first modest contribution: notes on a recent @UniofOxford paper… The […]