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Facts Interpretations

Modeling Covid-19 U.K. fatalities

Abstract Two models of the Covid-19 U.K. epidemics were calibrated respectively on offical death data and on an estimate of total excess death for 2020. We demonstrate the U.K. was in an unfavorable initial position with R0 around 3, higher than most countries. The effect of social distancing and decision of lockdown was positive, saving […]

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Facts Interpretations

Sars-CoV-2 preliminary serology test reports from Scotland, Denmark and Finland provide contrasting estimates of Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR)

Abstract Randomised Sars-Cov-2 serology surveys were recently conducted in Scotland, Denmark and Finland. Preliminary results were made public. We propose a workflow to interpret results in terms of epidemic dynamics. The Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) in Denmark is estimated 0.21%. IFR seven times lower are estimated for Finland and Scotland, with low degree of confidence, […]

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Facts Interpretations

New York City epidemic: quantifying lockdown effect from simulation… plus some insight on the proportion of infected

A CovModel 1.5 simulation of the Covid-19 epidemic in New York City was run to simulate death incidence up to 13 April 2020. The initial reproduction number was found Ro=3.2. We easily explained a peak in daily death of 670 occuring last Friday 10 April assuming a sharp reduction in R factor happening on 24 […]